Venezia 0–2 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Benevento

L. Caldirola 65'

M. Coda 29'

11/30/2019

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Venezia40%

×Draw27%

Benevento33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Venezia

1.33

Benevento

1.18

Venezia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 79 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

1.12

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Venezia

1.60

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Venezia

1.12

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezia+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

67%

Venezia or Benevento

73%

Draw or Benevento

60%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

18%

Benevento wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

74%

Venezia 2+ goals

38%

Venezia 3+ goals

15%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

33%

Benevento 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

55%

Benevento (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.12 · 117 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 1.60 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Benevento attack 1.24 + Venezia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Venezia scores more

40%

level

27%

Benevento scores more

33%

Venezia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Caldirola

Benevento · D

7.7

Match Events

29'

M. Coda

43'

Franco Zuculini

45'

Përparim Hetemaj

58'

A. Montalto← F. Zuculini

59'

Oliver Kragl

62'

A. Tello← P. Hetemaj

65'

L. Caldirola↳ O. Kragl

67'

R. Improta← O. Kragl

74'

L. Lollo← S. Suciu

76'

R. Insigne← M. Sau

85'

F. Di Mariano← R. Bocalon

90'

Luca Antei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaBenevento

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots20

1Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots20

1On Target7

5Off Target7

1Blocked6

4Inside Box13

3Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

578Total Passes421

479Accurate Passes327

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2