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Venezia U19 vs Sudtirol U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Venezia U19
Venezia U19
FT
5 – 0
Sudtirol U19
Sudtirol U19
1/27/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 16Stadio Comunale G. Taliercio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Venezia U1950%
×Draw23%
Sudtirol U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezia U19
1.79
Sudtirol U19
1.23

Venezia U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

creates per match

Venezia U19
1.76
Sudtirol U19
1.16

allows per match

Venezia U19
1.29
Sudtirol U19
1.82

finishing

Venezia U19+0.00on par
Sudtirol U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia U19 ↓

Sudtirol U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Venezia U19 or draw
74%
Venezia U19 or Sudtirol U19
77%
Draw or Sudtirol U19
50%

Winning margin

Venezia U19 wins by 2+
28%
Sudtirol U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Venezia U19 1+ goals
83%
Venezia U19 2+ goals
53%
Venezia U19 3+ goals
26%
Sudtirol U19 1+ goals
71%
Sudtirol U19 2+ goals
35%
Sudtirol U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Sudtirol U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Sudtirol U19 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia U19 attack 1.76 + Sudtirol U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sudtirol U19 attack 1.16 + Venezia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Venezia U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Sudtirol U19 scores more
26%

Venezia U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Venezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Venezia U19 5–0 Sudtirol U19

Venezia U19 beat Sudtirol U19 5-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale G. Taliercio in Mestre.