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Venezia U19 vs Brescia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Venezia U19
Venezia U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brescia U19
Brescia U19
3/7/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Venezia U1945%
×Draw23%
Brescia U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezia U19
1.77
Brescia U19
1.45

Venezia U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 85 away

creates per match

Venezia U19
1.76
Brescia U19
1.61

allows per match

Venezia U19
1.29
Brescia U19
1.79

finishing

Venezia U19+0.00on par
Brescia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia U19 ↓

Brescia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Venezia U19 or draw
68%
Venezia U19 or Brescia U19
77%
Draw or Brescia U19
55%

Winning margin

Venezia U19 wins by 2+
24%
Brescia U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Venezia U19 1+ goals
83%
Venezia U19 2+ goals
53%
Venezia U19 3+ goals
26%
Brescia U19 1+ goals
77%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
42%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Brescia U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia U19 attack 1.76 + Brescia U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Brescia U19 attack 1.61 + Venezia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Venezia U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Brescia U19 scores more
32%

Venezia U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Venezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Venezia U19 1–1 Brescia U19

Venezia U19 and Brescia U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 7, 2026.