Venezia U19 2–1 Benevento U19: Result & Stats

Venezia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Benevento U19

5/20/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsStadio Comunale G. Taliercio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Venezia U1947%

×Draw24%

Benevento U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venezia U19Expected goals in this matchBenevento U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.27

Venezia U19

1.69

Benevento U19

1.27

Venezia U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 84 away

1.76

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Venezia U19

1.76

Benevento U19

1.24

allows per match

Venezia U19

1.29

Benevento U19

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezia U19+0.00on par

Benevento U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia U19 ↓

Benevento U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Venezia U19 or draw

71%

Venezia U19 or Benevento U19

76%

Draw or Benevento U19

53%

Winning margin

Venezia U19 wins by 2+

25%

Benevento U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Venezia U19 1+ goals

82%

Venezia U19 2+ goals

50%

Venezia U19 3+ goals

24%

Benevento U19 1+ goals

72%

Benevento U19 2+ goals

36%

Benevento U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Benevento U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Benevento U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.61 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia U19 attack 1.76 + Benevento U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Benevento U19 attack 1.24 + Venezia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Venezia U19 scores more

47%

level

24%

Benevento U19 scores more

29%

Venezia U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Venezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff