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Vendsyssel FF vs FC Helsingor — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
K. Kusk 62'
L. Steffensen 37'
P. Williams 17'
M. Brems 45'
9/14/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF50%
×Draw23%
FC Helsingor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.79
FC Helsingor
1.27

Vendsyssel FF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 40 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
2.00
FC Helsingor
1.48

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.06
FC Helsingor
1.57

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
73%
Vendsyssel FF or FC Helsingor
77%
Draw or FC Helsingor
50%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
27%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
83%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
53%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
26%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
72%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
36%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
65%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 2.00 + FC Helsingor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Helsingor attack 1.48 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
50%
level
23%
FC Helsingor scores more
27%

Vendsyssel FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
P. Williams
37'
L. Steffensen
45'
M. Brems
62'
K. Kusk
Vendsyssel
FC
M. Kristensen
Manager: M. Kristensen
Marc Velasco
Manager: Marc Velasco

2nd Division - Group 1: Vendsyssel FF 3–1 FC Helsingor

Vendsyssel FF beat FC Helsingor 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: P. Williams (17'), L. Steffensen (37'), M. Brems (45'), K. Kusk (62').

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.