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Venados FC vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tapachula
Tapachula
3/14/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Venados FC52%
×Draw23%
Tapachula24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.78
Tapachula
1.13

Venados FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 30 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.63
Tapachula
1.17

allows per match

Venados FC
1.09
Tapachula
1.93

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
76%
Venados FC or Tapachula
77%
Draw or Tapachula
48%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
29%
Tapachula wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
83%
Venados FC 2+ goals
53%
Venados FC 3+ goals
26%
Tapachula 1+ goals
68%
Tapachula 2+ goals
31%
Tapachula 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
68%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 123 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Tapachula defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tapachula attack 1.17 + Venados FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Venados FC scores more
52%
level
23%
Tapachula scores more
24%

Venados FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venados FC vs Tapachula

Venados FC beat Tapachula 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida).