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Venados FC vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
7/21/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Venados FC46%
×Draw27%
Tampico Madero27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.40
Tampico Madero
0.99

Venados FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 64 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.64
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

Venados FC
1.07
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
73%
Venados FC or Tampico Madero
73%
Draw or Tampico Madero
54%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
22%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
75%
Venados FC 2+ goals
41%
Venados FC 3+ goals
17%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
63%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
26%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
64%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 128 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.64 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Venados FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Venados FC scores more
46%
level
27%
Tampico Madero scores more
27%

Venados FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Venados FC 1 – 0 Tampico Madero

Venados FC beat Tampico Madero 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida).