Tampico Madero 1–0 Venados FC: Result & Stats

Tampico Madero

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Venados FC

J. Lozano 40'

3/9/2020

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tampico Madero47%

×Draw27%

Venados FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.96

Tampico Madero

1.40

Venados FC

0.96

Tampico Madero creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 132 away

1.15

creates per match

0.98

0.95

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Tampico Madero

1.15

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

Tampico Madero

0.95

Venados FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw

74%

Tampico Madero or Venados FC

73%

Draw or Venados FC

53%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+

23%

Venados FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals

75%

Tampico Madero 2+ goals

41%

Tampico Madero 3+ goals

17%

Venados FC 1+ goals

62%

Venados FC 2+ goals

25%

Venados FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

65%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Venados FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tampico Madero scores more

47%

level

27%

Venados FC scores more

26%

Tampico Madero at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

40'

40'

43'

45'

45'

J. Ibarra← M. Rosselló

59'

J. Lozano Silva

62'

F. Martin

67'

E. Torres← F. Martín

70'

M. Guzmán← R. Prieto

77'

A. Jaramillo← K. Lara

88'

C. Vázquez← A. López

Tampico

Venados

28

Ramírez

4

▼

3

8

27

21

16

11

9

14

▼

Martín

25

▼

1

3

2

4

23

5

29

▼

Lara

8

Ortega

18

▼

Prieto

11

▼

López

17

⚽

Lozano

Manager: G. Espinoza

70'▲M. Guzmán←▼R. Prieto

77'▲A. Jaramillo←▼K. Lara

88'▲C. Vázquez←▼A. López

Tampico Madero substitutes

15Guzmán21Jaramillo20Vázquez9Ocejo13Villa16García26Manzanarez

Manager: C. Gutiérrez

43'▲C. Ramos←▼J. Sánchez

45'▲J. Ibarra←▼M. Rosselló

67'▲E. Torres←▼F. Martín

Venados FC substitutes

6Ramos29Ibarra15Torres1Arozarena7Fernández13Tamay33Camargo

Liga de Expansión MX: Tampico Madero 1–0 Venados FC

Tampico Madero beat Venados FC 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 9, 2020.

Goals: J. Lozano (40').

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero).

Tampico Madero vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: Tampico Madero 1–0 Venados FC