Venados FC 1–3 Pumas Tabasco: Result & Stats

Venados FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Pumas Tabasco

11/4/2020

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Venados FC48%

×Draw25%

Pumas Tabasco28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venados FCExpected goals in this matchPumas Tabasco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Venados FC

1.61

Pumas Tabasco

1.17

Venados FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 50 away

1.63

creates per match

1.26

1.08

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Venados FC

1.63

Pumas Tabasco

1.26

allows per match

Venados FC

1.08

Pumas Tabasco

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Pumas Tabasco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw

72%

Venados FC or Pumas Tabasco

75%

Draw or Pumas Tabasco

52%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+

25%

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals

80%

Venados FC 2+ goals

48%

Venados FC 3+ goals

22%

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

69%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

33%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)

63%

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Venados FC scores more

48%

level

25%

Pumas Tabasco scores more

28%

Venados FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff