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Pumas Tabasco vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Venados FC
Venados FC
3/27/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco36%
×Draw28%
Venados FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
1.18
Venados FC
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 129 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
65%
Pumas Tabasco or Venados FC
72%
Draw or Venados FC
64%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
15%
Venados FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
69%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
33%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
12%
Venados FC 1+ goals
69%
Venados FC 2+ goals
32%
Venados FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
51%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.18

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
36%
level
28%
Venados FC scores more
35%

Pumas Tabasco at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Pumas Tabasco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Pumas Tabasco 0–2 Venados FC

Venados FC beat Pumas Tabasco 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.