Venados FC 2–1 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Venados FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

9/14/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Venados FC47%

×Draw26%

Monarcas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venados FCExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Venados FC

1.52

Monarcas

1.10

Venados FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 108 away

1.63

creates per match

1.11

1.08

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Venados FC

1.63

Monarcas

1.11

allows per match

Venados FC

1.08

Monarcas

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw

73%

Venados FC or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

53%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+

24%

Monarcas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals

78%

Venados FC 2+ goals

45%

Venados FC 3+ goals

20%

Monarcas 1+ goals

67%

Monarcas 2+ goals

30%

Monarcas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)

63%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Venados FC scores more

47%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

27%

Venados FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff