Venados FC vs Irapuato — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Venados FC51%
Irapuato25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Venados FC creates 55% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Venados FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Venados FC at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 128 matches
Irapuato away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Venados FC attack 1.64 + Irapuato defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61
Irapuato attack 1.00 + Venados FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Venados FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de ZacatecasIrapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDGVenados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Venados FC host Irapuato on Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Liga de Expansión MX: Venados FC 4–1 Irapuato
Venados FC beat Irapuato 4-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 10, 2026.
Goals: S. Lora (19'), D. Navarrete (31'), J. Rangel (56'), J. Calero (72'), O. Ballesteros (87').
The match was played at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.