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Venados FC vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
Preview
23:00
Durango
Durango
10/24/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero
55%
Venados FC
model favours
55%23%21%

Both teams score in only 20% of Venados FC’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Venados FC55%
×Draw23%
Durango21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.76
Durango
0.99

Venados FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 19 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.63
Durango
0.89

allows per match

Venados FC
1.08
Durango
1.89

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
79%
Venados FC or Durango
77%
Draw or Durango
45%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
31%
Durango wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
83%
Venados FC 2+ goals
52%
Venados FC 3+ goals
26%
Durango 1+ goals
63%
Durango 2+ goals
26%
Durango 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
72%
Durango (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Durango attack 0.89 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Venados FC scores more
55%
level
23%
Durango scores more
21%

Venados FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 26% of Venados FC’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 32% of Venados FC’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DWDWL
Durango
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Venados FC face Durango (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX returns with Venados FC hosting Durango. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Venados FC host Durango at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.