Durango 1–1 Venados FC: Result & Stats

Durango

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Venados FC

7/21/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango47%

×Draw25%

Venados FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DurangoExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.16

Durango

1.58

Venados FC

1.16

Durango creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 127 away

1.56

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Durango

1.56

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

Durango

1.33

Venados FC

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durango+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Durango or draw

72%

Durango or Venados FC

75%

Draw or Venados FC

53%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+

24%

Venados FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals

79%

Durango 2+ goals

47%

Durango 3+ goals

21%

Venados FC 1+ goals

69%

Venados FC 2+ goals

32%

Venados FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)

63%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.60 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Venados FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Durango scores more

47%

level

25%

Venados FC scores more

28%

Durango at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff