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Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3/13/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Venados FC54%
×Draw24%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.71
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.01

Venados FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 124 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.63
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Venados FC
1.08
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.80

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
78%
Venados FC or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
76%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
46%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
29%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
82%
Venados FC 2+ goals
51%
Venados FC 3+ goals
24%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
64%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
27%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
71%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Venados FC scores more
54%
level
24%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
22%

Venados FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Venados FC 2–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Venados FC beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero in Mérida.