Velo Clube U20 2–0 Rio Claro SP U20: Result & Stats

Velo Clube U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rio Claro SP U20

Unknown 45+2', 16'

4/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Benito Agnelo Castellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Velo Clube U2063%

×Draw20%

Rio Claro SP U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velo Clube U20Expected goals in this matchRio Claro SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.05

Velo Clube U20

2.21

Rio Claro SP U20

1.05

Velo Clube U20 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.42

creates per match

0.85

1.26

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Velo Clube U20

1.42

Rio Claro SP U20

0.85

allows per match

Velo Clube U20

1.26

Rio Claro SP U20

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw

83%

Velo Clube U20 or Rio Claro SP U20

80%

Draw or Rio Claro SP U20

37%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+

40%

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals

89%

Velo Clube U20 2+ goals

65%

Velo Clube U20 3+ goals

38%

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals

65%

Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals

28%

Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)

79%

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more

63%

level

20%

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more

17%

Velo Clube U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Velo Clube U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

44'

45+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff