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Velo Clube U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
H. Guilherme 88'
Lucca 84'
6/27/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Velo Clube U2044%
×Draw24%
Referencia U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velo Clube U20
1.65
Referencia U20
1.36

Velo Clube U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

Velo Clube U20
1.42
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

Velo Clube U20
1.26
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw
68%
Velo Clube U20 or Referencia U20
76%
Draw or Referencia U20
56%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
23%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
81%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
49%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
23%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
74%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
39%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Referencia U20 scores more
32%

Velo Clube U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Velo Clube U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
Lucca
88'
H. Guilherme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velo Clube U20 vs Referencia U20

Velo Clube U20 and Referencia U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 27, 2024.

Goals: Lucca (84'), H. Guilherme (88').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto in Araras, São Paulo.