Velo Clube U20 0–3 Novorizontino U20

Velo Clube U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Novorizontino U20

Antony 82'

P. Zenatti 67'

Victor Gabriel 62'

7/18/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Benito Agnelo Castellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Velo Clube U2027%

×Draw24%

Novorizontino U2049%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velo Clube U20Expected goals in this matchNovorizontino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.67

Velo Clube U20

1.17

Novorizontino U20

1.67

Novorizontino U20 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

1.42

creates per match

2.08

1.26

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Velo Clube U20

1.42

Novorizontino U20

2.08

allows per match

Velo Clube U20

1.26

Novorizontino U20

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw

51%

Velo Clube U20 or Novorizontino U20

76%

Draw or Novorizontino U20

73%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+

11%

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals

69%

Velo Clube U20 2+ goals

33%

Velo Clube U20 3+ goals

11%

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals

81%

Novorizontino U20 2+ goals

50%

Novorizontino U20 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more

27%

level

24%

Novorizontino U20 scores more

49%

Novorizontino U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Victor Gabriel

67'

P. Zenatti

82'

Antony

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff