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Velo Clube U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Unknown 80'
8/5/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Benito Agnelo Castellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Velo Clube U2036%
×Draw24%
Mirassol U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velo Clube U20
1.48
Mirassol U20
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Velo Clube U20
1.42
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Velo Clube U20
1.26
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw
60%
Velo Clube U20 or Mirassol U20
76%
Draw or Mirassol U20
64%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
17%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
77%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
43%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
19%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
79%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
47%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more
36%
level
24%
Mirassol U20 scores more
40%

Mirassol U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Velo Clube U20 1–0 Mirassol U20

Velo Clube U20 beat Mirassol U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (80').

The match was played at Estádio Benito Agnelo Castellano in Rio Claro, São Paulo.