Velo Clube U20 3–3 Marília U20: Result & Stats

Velo Clube U20

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Marília U20

Unknown 72', 33', 27'

Unknown 82', 58', 21'

8/10/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 6Estádio Barão de Serra Negra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Velo Clube U2035%

×Draw25%

Marília U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velo Clube U20Expected goals in this matchMarília U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Velo Clube U20

1.33

Marília U20

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

1.63

1.26

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Velo Clube U20

1.42

Marília U20

1.63

allows per match

Velo Clube U20

1.26

Marília U20

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Marília U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Marília U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw

60%

Velo Clube U20 or Marília U20

75%

Draw or Marília U20

65%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+

15%

Marília U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals

74%

Velo Clube U20 2+ goals

38%

Velo Clube U20 3+ goals

15%

Marília U20 1+ goals

76%

Marília U20 2+ goals

42%

Marília U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Marília U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Marília U20 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Marília U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more

35%

level

25%

Marília U20 scores more

40%

Marília U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

27'

33'

42'

58'

72'

82'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff