Veľké Revištia vs Spišská Nová Ves

Veľké Revištia

CANC

15:00

Spišská Nová Ves

6/13/2021

3. liga - East · East - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia25%

×Draw23%

Spišská Nová Ves52%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veľké RevištiaExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.79

Veľké Revištia

1.17

Spišská Nová Ves

1.79

Spišská Nová Ves creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 64 away

1.43

creates per match

1.73

1.86

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Veľké Revištia

1.43

Spišská Nová Ves

1.73

allows per match

Veľké Revištia

1.86

Spišská Nová Ves

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw

48%

Veľké Revištia or Spišská Nová Ves

77%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

75%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+

10%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals

69%

Veľké Revištia 2+ goals

33%

Veľké Revištia 3+ goals

11%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

83%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

53%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)

32%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more

25%

level

23%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

52%

Spišská Nová Ves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff