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Veľké Revištia vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
CANC
15:00
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
5/16/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia45%
×Draw21%
Mladosť Kalša34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
2.15
Mladosť Kalša
1.84

Veľké Revištia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
66%
Veľké Revištia or Mladosť Kalša
79%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
55%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
26%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
88%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
63%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
36%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
84%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
55%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
57%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
45%
level
21%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
34%

Veľké Revištia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Veľké Revištia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veľké Revištia face Mladosť Kalša (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Veľké Revištia hosting Mladosť Kalša. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.