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Veľké Revištia vs Lipany — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
CANC
14:30
Lipany
Lipany
5/2/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia32%
×Draw23%
Lipany44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
1.44
Lipany
1.72

Lipany creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 80 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Lipany
1.57

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Lipany
1.45

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Lipany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
56%
Veľké Revištia or Lipany
77%
Draw or Lipany
68%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
15%
Lipany wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
76%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
42%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
18%
Lipany 1+ goals
82%
Lipany 2+ goals
51%
Lipany 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
42%
Lipany (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lipany attack 1.57 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
32%
level
23%
Lipany scores more
44%

Lipany at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veľké Revištia vs Lipany — Match Preview

Veľké Revištia face Lipany on May 2, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.