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Veľké Revištia vs Humenné — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
CANC
15:00
Humenné
Humenné
5/30/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia15%
×Draw18%
Humenné67%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
1.08
Humenné
2.43

Humenné creates 125% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Humenné
3.00

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Humenné
0.74

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Humenné →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
33%
Veľké Revištia or Humenné
82%
Draw or Humenné
85%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
5%
Humenné wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
66%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
29%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
10%
Humenné 1+ goals
91%
Humenné 2+ goals
69%
Humenné 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
19%
Humenné (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Humenné away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Humenné defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.08

Humenné attack 3.00 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
15%
level
18%
Humenné scores more
67%

Humenné at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veľké Revištia host Humenné

May 30, 2021: Veľké Revištia take on Humenné in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.