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Velké Meziříčí vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
4/28/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 23Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Velké Meziříčí51%
×Draw23%
Stará Říše27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
1.89
Stará Říše
1.32

Velké Meziříčí creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.44
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.69
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
73%
Velké Meziříčí or Stará Říše
77%
Draw or Stará Říše
49%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
29%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
85%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
56%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
29%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
73%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
38%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
65%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.44 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
51%
level
23%
Stará Říše scores more
27%

Velké Meziříčí at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Velké Meziříčí 2–1 Stará Říše

Velké Meziříčí beat Stará Říše 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadión U Tržiště in Velké Meziříčí.