Velké Meziříčí 5–3 Dolní Benešov: Result & Stats

Velké Meziříčí

FT

5 – 3

Dolní Benešov

9/27/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Velké Meziříčí58%

×Draw20%

Dolní Benešov22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velké MeziříčíExpected goals in this matchDolní Benešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.34

Velké Meziříčí

2.28

Dolní Benešov

1.34

Velké Meziříčí creates 70% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 26 away

1.83

creates per match

1.08

1.60

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí

1.83

Dolní Benešov

1.08

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí

1.60

Dolní Benešov

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Dolní Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw

78%

Velké Meziříčí or Dolní Benešov

80%

Draw or Dolní Benešov

42%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+

36%

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals

90%

Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals

66%

Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals

39%

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

74%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

39%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)

73%

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.83 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more

58%

level

20%

Dolní Benešov scores more

22%

Velké Meziříčí at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff