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Velké Meziříčí vs Chotebor — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chotebor
Chotebor
9/28/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 9Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Velké Meziříčí54%
×Draw22%
Chotebor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
2.02
Chotebor
1.31

Velké Meziříčí creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.44
Chotebor
0.93

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.69
Chotebor
2.60

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Chotebor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Chotebor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
75%
Velké Meziříčí or Chotebor
78%
Draw or Chotebor
46%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
31%
Chotebor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
87%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
60%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
33%
Chotebor 1+ goals
73%
Chotebor 2+ goals
38%
Chotebor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
68%
Chotebor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Chotebor away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.44 + Chotebor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Chotebor attack 0.93 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
54%
level
22%
Chotebor scores more
25%

Velké Meziříčí at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Velké Meziříčí 1–1 Chotebor

Velké Meziříčí and Chotebor drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadión U Tržiště in Velké Meziříčí.