Veľké Ludince 0–0 Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

Veľké Ludince

FT

0 – 0

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

8/9/2020

3. liga - West · West - 1Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Veľké Ludince66%

×Draw20%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veľké LudinceExpected goals in this matchZl. Moravce-Vrablé II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.85

Veľké Ludince

2.10

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

0.85

Veľké Ludince creates 147% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 25 away

1.65

creates per match

0.72

0.99

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Veľké Ludince

1.65

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

0.72

allows per match

Veľké Ludince

0.99

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw

86%

Veľké Ludince or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

80%

Draw or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

34%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+

42%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals

88%

Veľké Ludince 2+ goals

62%

Veľké Ludince 3+ goals

35%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals

57%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals

21%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)

82%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.10

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more

66%

level

20%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more

14%

Veľké Ludince at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff