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Veľké Ludince vs Slovan Levice — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
4 – 0
Slovan Levice
Slovan Levice
9/1/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 16Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Veľké Ludince76%
×Draw15%
Slovan Levice9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
2.50
Slovan Levice
0.73

Veľké Ludince creates 242% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Slovan Levice
0.47

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Slovan Levice
3.35

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Slovan Levice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
91%
Veľké Ludince or Slovan Levice
85%
Draw or Slovan Levice
24%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
53%
Slovan Levice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
92%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
71%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
45%
Slovan Levice 1+ goals
52%
Slovan Levice 2+ goals
17%
Slovan Levice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
89%
Slovan Levice (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.50

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
76%
level
15%
Slovan Levice scores more
9%

Veľké Ludince at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Veľké Ludince 4–0 Slovan Levice

Veľké Ludince beat Slovan Levice 4-0 in 3. liga - West on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Družstevník Veľké Ludince in Veľké Ludince.