Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veľké Ludince vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
6/1/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Štadión TJ Družstevník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Veľké Ludince45%
×Draw25%
Hamsik Academy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
1.53
Hamsik Academy
1.21

Veľké Ludince creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 45 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
70%
Veľké Ludince or Hamsik Academy
75%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
55%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
22%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
78%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
45%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
20%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
70%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
34%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
60%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
45%
level
25%
Hamsik Academy scores more
30%

Veľké Ludince at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Veľké Ludince 3–1 Hamsik Academy

Veľké Ludince beat Hamsik Academy 3-1 in 3. liga - West on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Družstevník in Veľké Ludince.