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Veľké Ludince vs Galanta — 3. liga - West 2020

Veľké Ludince
Veľké Ludince
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Galanta
Galanta
4/14/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Štadión TJ Družstevník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Veľké Ludince47%
×Draw25%
Galanta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Ludince
1.56
Galanta
1.16

Veľké Ludince creates 34% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

creates per match

Veľké Ludince
1.65
Galanta
1.32

allows per match

Veľké Ludince
0.99
Galanta
1.48

finishing

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par
Galanta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Ludince ↓

Galanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veľké Ludince or draw
72%
Veľké Ludince or Galanta
75%
Draw or Galanta
53%

Winning margin

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+
24%
Galanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals
79%
Veľké Ludince 2+ goals
46%
Veľké Ludince 3+ goals
21%
Galanta 1+ goals
69%
Galanta 2+ goals
32%
Galanta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)
62%
Galanta (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Ludince at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Galanta away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Ludince attack 1.65 + Galanta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Galanta attack 1.32 + Veľké Ludince defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Veľké Ludince scores more
47%
level
25%
Galanta scores more
28%

Veľké Ludince at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Veľké Ludince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Veľké Ludince 0–0 Galanta

Veľké Ludince and Galanta drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Družstevník in Veľké Ludince.