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Velké Hamry vs Ústí nad Orlicí — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 14Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Velké Hamry49%
×Draw23%
Ústí nad Orlicí28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Hamry
1.81
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.33

Velké Hamry creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

creates per match

Velké Hamry
2.69
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.60

allows per match

Velké Hamry
1.05
Ústí nad Orlicí
0.93

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par
Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Ústí nad Orlicí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw
72%
Velké Hamry or Ústí nad Orlicí
77%
Draw or Ústí nad Orlicí
51%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+
27%
Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals
84%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
54%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
27%
Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
74%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
38%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
63%
Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Ústí nad Orlicí away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 1.60 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Velké Hamry scores more
49%
level
23%
Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
28%

Velké Hamry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velké Hamry vs Ústí nad Orlicí

Velké Hamry beat Ústí nad Orlicí 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry in Velké Hamry.