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Velké Hamry vs Slavia Hradec Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slavia Hradec Králové
Slavia Hradec Králové
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 19Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Velké Hamry66%
×Draw18%
Slavia Hradec Králové17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Hamry
2.51
Slavia Hradec Králové
1.19

Velké Hamry creates 111% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Velké Hamry
2.69
Slavia Hradec Králové
1.33

allows per match

Velké Hamry
1.05
Slavia Hradec Králové
2.33

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par
Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Slavia Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw
83%
Velké Hamry or Slavia Hradec Králové
82%
Draw or Slavia Hradec Králové
34%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+
44%
Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals
92%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
71%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
45%
Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals
70%
Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
80%
Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Slavia Hradec Králové away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.51

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.33 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Velké Hamry scores more
66%
level
18%
Slavia Hradec Králové scores more
17%

Velké Hamry at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velké Hamry vs Slavia Hradec Králové

Velké Hamry beat Slavia Hradec Králové 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry in Velké Hamry.