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Velké Hamry vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
PST
15:00
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
5/17/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 26Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry (Velké Hamry)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Velké Hamry81%
×Draw13%
Polaban Nymburk7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Hamry
2.80
Polaban Nymburk
0.69

Velké Hamry creates 306% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 12 away

creates per match

Velké Hamry
2.69
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Velké Hamry
1.05
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw
93%
Velké Hamry or Polaban Nymburk
87%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
19%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+
60%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals
94%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
76%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
52%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
50%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
15%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
92%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.80

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Velké Hamry scores more
81%
level
13%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
7%

Velké Hamry at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Velké Hamry host Polaban Nymburk

May 17, 2020: Velké Hamry take on Polaban Nymburk in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Velké Hamry host Polaban Nymburk at Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry (Velké Hamry).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.