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Polaban Nymburk vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
Pens
1 – 1
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
10/20/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 11Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk18%
×Draw18%
Velké Hamry64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.31
Velké Hamry
2.54

Velké Hamry creates 94% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 53 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
36%
Polaban Nymburk or Velké Hamry
82%
Draw or Velké Hamry
82%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
7%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
73%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
38%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
14%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
92%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
72%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
22%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
18%
level
18%
Velké Hamry scores more
64%

Velké Hamry at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Polaban Nymburk 1–1 Velké Hamry

Polaban Nymburk and Velké Hamry drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).