Velké Hamry 2–0 Hlinsko: Result & Stats

Velké Hamry

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hlinsko

8/19/2023

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 3Hřiště TJ Velké Hamry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Velké Hamry65%

×Draw18%

Hlinsko17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velké HamryExpected goals in this matchHlinsko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.20

Velké Hamry

2.50

Hlinsko

1.20

Velké Hamry creates 108% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 69 away

2.69

creates per match

1.35

1.05

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Velké Hamry

2.69

Hlinsko

1.35

allows per match

Velké Hamry

1.05

Hlinsko

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Hlinsko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Hamry ↓

Hlinsko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Velké Hamry or draw

83%

Velké Hamry or Hlinsko

82%

Draw or Hlinsko

35%

Winning margin

Velké Hamry wins by 2+

43%

Hlinsko wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Velké Hamry 1+ goals

92%

Velké Hamry 2+ goals

71%

Velké Hamry 3+ goals

45%

Hlinsko 1+ goals

70%

Hlinsko 2+ goals

34%

Hlinsko 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Velké Hamry (draw refunded)

80%

Hlinsko (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Hamry at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Hlinsko away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.30 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Hamry attack 2.69 + Hlinsko defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hlinsko attack 1.35 + Velké Hamry defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Velké Hamry scores more

65%

level

18%

Hlinsko scores more

17%

Velké Hamry at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Velké Hamry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff