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Velká Bíteš vs Pelhřimov — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pelhřimov
Pelhřimov
4/25/20264. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Velká Bíteš52%
×Draw23%
Pelhřimov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velká Bíteš
1.85
Pelhřimov
1.24

Velká Bíteš creates 49% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

Velká Bíteš
1.67
Pelhřimov
1.20

allows per match

Velká Bíteš
1.28
Pelhřimov
2.03

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par
Pelhřimov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Pelhřimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw
74%
Velká Bíteš or Pelhřimov
77%
Draw or Pelhřimov
48%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
29%
Pelhřimov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
84%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
55%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
28%
Pelhřimov 1+ goals
71%
Pelhřimov 2+ goals
35%
Pelhřimov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
67%
Pelhřimov (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Pelhřimov away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Pelhřimov defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pelhřimov attack 1.20 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more
52%
level
23%
Pelhřimov scores more
26%

Velká Bíteš at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Velká Bíteš 4–1 Pelhřimov

Velká Bíteš beat Pelhřimov 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 25, 2026.