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Velká Bíteš vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
FT
2 – 1
Břeclav
Břeclav
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 18Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Velká Bíteš55%
×Draw22%
Břeclav23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velká Bíteš
1.91
Břeclav
1.16

Velká Bíteš creates 65% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

creates per match

Velká Bíteš
1.67
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Velká Bíteš
1.28
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Velká Bíteš+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velká Bíteš ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Velká Bíteš or draw
77%
Velká Bíteš or Břeclav
78%
Draw or Břeclav
45%

Winning margin

Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
32%
Břeclav wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
85%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
57%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
30%
Břeclav 1+ goals
69%
Břeclav 2+ goals
32%
Břeclav 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
70%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velká Bíteš at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velká Bíteš attack 1.67 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.91

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Velká Bíteš scores more
55%
level
22%
Břeclav scores more
23%

Velká Bíteš at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Velká Bíteš 2–1 Břeclav

Velká Bíteš beat Břeclav 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadión Velká Bíteš in Velká Bíteš.