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Velež vs Siroki Brijeg — Premijer Liga 2019

Velež
Velež
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
4/21/2026Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 30Stadion Rodjeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Velež50%
×Draw26%
Siroki Brijeg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež
1.47
Siroki Brijeg
0.93

Velež creates 58% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

creates per match

Velež
1.51
Siroki Brijeg
0.97

allows per match

Velež
0.88
Siroki Brijeg
1.43

finishing

Velež+0.00on par
Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

Siroki Brijeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Velež or draw
76%
Velež or Siroki Brijeg
74%
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
50%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+
25%
Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals
77%
Velež 2+ goals
43%
Velež 3+ goals
18%
Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals
61%
Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals
24%
Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)
68%
Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Velež scores more
50%
level
26%
Siroki Brijeg scores more
24%

Velež at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Velež 3–0 Siroki Brijeg

Velež beat Siroki Brijeg 3-0 in Premijer Liga on April 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Rodjeni in Mostar.