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Vélez vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Motril
Motril
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez37%
×Draw27%
Motril36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.23
Motril
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 112 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Motril
1.05

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
64%
Vélez or Motril
73%
Draw or Motril
63%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
16%
Motril wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
71%
Vélez 2+ goals
35%
Vélez 3+ goals
13%
Motril 1+ goals
70%
Motril 2+ goals
34%
Motril 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
50%
Motril (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Motril attack 1.18 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vélez scores more
37%
level
27%
Motril scores more
36%

Vélez at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vélez 0 – 2 Motril

Motril beat Vélez 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.