Vélez 4–1 Melilla CD: Result & Stats

Vélez

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Melilla CD

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez60%

×Draw21%

Melilla CD19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VélezExpected goals in this matchMelilla CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.04

Vélez

2.01

Melilla CD

1.04

Vélez creates 93% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

1.26

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Vélez

1.41

Melilla CD

0.82

allows per match

Vélez

1.26

Melilla CD

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Melilla CD →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vélez or draw

81%

Vélez or Melilla CD

79%

Draw or Melilla CD

40%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+

36%

Melilla CD wins by 2+

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals

87%

Vélez 2+ goals

59%

Vélez 3+ goals

32%

Melilla CD 1+ goals

65%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

28%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)

76%

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.01

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vélez scores more

60%

level

21%

Melilla CD scores more

19%

Vélez at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff