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Vélez vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
5/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez43%
×Draw28%
Mancha Real29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.28
Mancha Real
0.99

Vélez creates 29% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 79 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
71%
Vélez or Mancha Real
72%
Draw or Mancha Real
57%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
19%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
72%
Vélez 2+ goals
37%
Vélez 3+ goals
14%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
63%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
26%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
60%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vélez scores more
43%
level
28%
Mancha Real scores more
29%

Vélez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Vélez 3–0 Mancha Real

Vélez beat Mancha Real 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.