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Vélez vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
CANC
00:00
Málaga II
Málaga II
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 35Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez35%
×Draw27%
Málaga II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.25
Málaga II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 92 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
62%
Vélez or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
65%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
15%
Málaga II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
71%
Vélez 2+ goals
36%
Vélez 3+ goals
13%
Málaga II 1+ goals
73%
Málaga II 2+ goals
38%
Málaga II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
48%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vélez scores more
35%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
38%

Málaga II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vélez vs Málaga II — Match Preview

Vélez face Málaga II on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vélez host Málaga II at Estadio Vivar Téllez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.