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Vélez vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vélez25%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.10
Linares Deportivo
1.67

Linares Deportivo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Linares Deportivo
2.07

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Linares Deportivo
0.79

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
49%
Vélez or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
75%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
10%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
67%
Vélez 2+ goals
30%
Vélez 3+ goals
10%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
81%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
50%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
33%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vélez scores more
25%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
51%

Linares Deportivo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vélez vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Vélez 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.