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Velež vs Igman Konjic — Premijer Liga 2019

Velež
Velež
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
12/17/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 18Stadion Rođeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Velež58%
×Draw22%
Igman Konjic20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež
1.91
Igman Konjic
1.04

Velež creates 84% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 51 away

creates per match

Velež
1.51
Igman Konjic
1.20

allows per match

Velež
0.88
Igman Konjic
2.31

finishing

Velež+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Velež or draw
80%
Velež or Igman Konjic
78%
Draw or Igman Konjic
42%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+
34%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals
85%
Velež 2+ goals
57%
Velež 3+ goals
30%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
65%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
28%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)
74%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.91

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Velež scores more
58%
level
22%
Igman Konjic scores more
20%

Velež at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Velež 1–1 Igman Konjic

Velež and Igman Konjic drew 1-1 in Premijer Liga on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rođeni in Mostar.