Vélez 3–2 Huétor Tájar: Result & Stats

Vélez

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Huétor Tájar

11/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez43%

×Draw26%

Huétor Tájar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VélezExpected goals in this matchHuétor Tájar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.19

Vélez

1.43

Huétor Tájar

1.19

Vélez creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

1.41

creates per match

1.11

1.26

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Vélez

1.41

Huétor Tájar

1.11

allows per match

Vélez

1.26

Huétor Tájar

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Huétor Tájar →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vélez or draw

69%

Vélez or Huétor Tájar

74%

Draw or Huétor Tájar

57%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+

20%

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals

76%

Vélez 2+ goals

42%

Vélez 3+ goals

17%

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals

70%

Huétor Tájar 2+ goals

33%

Huétor Tájar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)

58%

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vélez scores more

43%

level

26%

Huétor Tájar scores more

31%

Vélez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff