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Velež vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Velež
Velež
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
2/22/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 19Stadion Rođeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velež57%
×Draw23%
GOŠK Gabela20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež
1.86
GOŠK Gabela
1.01

Velež creates 84% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 34 away

creates per match

Velež
1.51
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Velež
0.88
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Velež+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Velež or draw
80%
Velež or GOŠK Gabela
77%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
43%

Winning margin

Velež wins by 2+
33%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Velež 1+ goals
84%
Velež 2+ goals
55%
Velež 3+ goals
28%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
64%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
27%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Velež (draw refunded)
74%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež attack 1.51 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.86

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Velež defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Velež scores more
57%
level
23%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
20%

Velež at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velež vs GOŠK Gabela

Velež and GOŠK Gabela drew 2-2 in Premijer Liga on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rođeni in Mostar.