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Vélez vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Palo
El Palo
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez45%
×Draw27%
El Palo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.40
El Palo
1.06

Vélez creates 32% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 91 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
El Palo
0.87

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
El Palo
1.38

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
71%
Vélez or El Palo
73%
Draw or El Palo
55%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
21%
El Palo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
75%
Vélez 2+ goals
41%
Vélez 3+ goals
17%
El Palo 1+ goals
65%
El Palo 2+ goals
29%
El Palo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
61%
El Palo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

El Palo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + El Palo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

El Palo attack 0.87 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vélez scores more
45%
level
27%
El Palo scores more
29%

Vélez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vélez vs El Palo

El Palo beat Vélez 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.