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Vélez vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
1/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez47%
×Draw25%
Atlético Porcuna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.55
Atlético Porcuna
1.13

Vélez creates 37% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 94 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Atlético Porcuna
0.99

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Atlético Porcuna
1.69

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Atlético Porcuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
72%
Vélez or Atlético Porcuna
75%
Draw or Atlético Porcuna
53%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
79%
Vélez 2+ goals
46%
Vélez 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vélez scores more
47%
level
25%
Atlético Porcuna scores more
28%

Vélez at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vélez vs Atlético Porcuna

Vélez beat Atlético Porcuna 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.