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Vélez vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Almería II
Almería II
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez36%
×Draw26%
Almería II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.35
Almería II
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 75 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
62%
Vélez or Almería II
74%
Draw or Almería II
64%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
16%
Almería II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
74%
Vélez 2+ goals
39%
Vélez 3+ goals
15%
Almería II 1+ goals
75%
Almería II 2+ goals
40%
Almería II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
49%
Almería II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Almería II attack 1.51 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vélez scores more
36%
level
26%
Almería II scores more
38%

Almería II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vélez vs Almería II

Almería II beat Vélez 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.